The United Nations agency and the World Meteorological Organization have warned that the probability of El Niño occurring between June and August 2026 has reached 80 percent, which could lead to an increase in extreme heat, drought, unusual rainfall and other weather extremes around the world.
According to the World Meteorological Organization, sea water temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific are rising to an unusually high level, as a result of which El Niño conditions are rapidly forming.
The organization said in its latest report that according to global forecasts, the probability of El Niño occurring between June and August is 80 percent, while by November this probability may be 90 percent or more. Experts say that this El Niño could prove to be at least moderate in intensity and possibly even strong.
El Niño is a natural meteorological process that occurs every two to seven years and usually lasts for 9 to 12 months. During this time, the waters of the Pacific Ocean warm, resulting in significant changes in wind, rainfall and temperature regimes around the world.
The head of the World Meteorological Organization said that the world should start preparing for the effects of El Niño now because it can further increase the risks of drought, heavy rainfall, land and sea heatwaves.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres also warned that El Niño is knocking on our door and should be taken as an emergency climate warning. According to him, with increasing global warming, the effects of El Niño may become more severe.
The report states that higher than normal temperatures are likely to be recorded in most parts of the world between June and August. Rainfall may decrease in some parts of East Africa, monsoon is likely to be lower than normal in South Asia, while dry and hot weather is also expected in Central America.
According to experts, El Niño can have profound impacts on agriculture, water resources, the energy sector, and public health, which is why governments and relevant institutions need to take proactive measures.
